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Forecasting Dengue
Why in news?
A Recent study by an Indian research institute pronounces that it is possible to forecast the outbreak of the dengue.
What is the study about?
• The study concentrates on the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) for the dengue virus, while factoring in daily and monthly means temperature variation in different climatic zones.
• EIP is defined as the time required for incubation of virus inside a mosquito.
• During this period, after the mosquito draws blood that is rich in viruses, it escapes the gut and passes through the mosquito’s body and reaches its salivary glands.
• Once this happens, the mosquito is infectious and capable of transmitting the virus to a human host.
What are the outcomes of the study?
• Climatic conditions play an important role in EIP.
• Lower temperatures (17-18°C) result in longer EIPs thereby leading to decreased virus transmission.
• From 17 to 30°C, dengue transmission increases fourfold, feeding increases because of the enhanced
metabolism of the mosquito, leading to shorter EIPs.
• A further increase in temperature beyond 35°C is detrimental to the mosquito’s survival.
• There is a strong correlation between rainfall and dengue numbers, they propose an increase in breeding
grounds for mosquitoes.
• Given its close link with both temperature and rainfall, it is possible to forecast the outbreak of dengue.
How it helps in Disease control?
• This climate-based dengue forecasting model can help health organization in the assessment of disease intensity in a geographic region.
• Authorities can formulate disease-control actions well in advance and optimize resources meticulously.
• For future risk assessment studies factors such as population density and migration also need to be included
• Mitigation and strategic control disease can be achieved by this.

Post Author: admin